87
present trend continues? What annual sales rate would the curve have
predicted for the 5th year of the product's life? (Arrange the data as
follows:)
Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing
A common method for analyzing trends in sales, inventory and securities
is the moving average. Exponential smoothing is a version of the weighted
moving average which is readily adaptable to programmable calculator
forecasting.
Group
I
Group
II
Group
III
18 151 282
41 188 322
49 260 340
Keystrokes Display
CLEAR
0.00
18
18.00
151
151.00
282
1.00
41
41.00
188
188.00
322
2.00
49
49.00
260
260.00
340
3.00 Total number of entries.
13
0.004 a
6
0.65 b
7
373.92 c
10
349.09 Sales in 10th year, (in $K).
12
363.36 Sales in 12th year, (in $K).
100
373.92
Maximum annual sales (after very
long product life).
5
202.60
Sales in 5th year (actual sales
were $188K).
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